Market Analysis Today

Dow Jones rallied the market up to 240 points on Thursday, April 09, 2009 since it got the news from Well Fargo (WFC) in which the company give forecasting that it will beat expectation on the earning announce on April 21, 2009 before the market open and it give good response to other financial institution such as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and so on. Also, one other reason market was up was long weekend for Good Friday, as it is said from the Stock Trader Almanac 2009 that Dow Jones was up ten (10) times out of last 12 consecutive year. Windows dressing could be one other aspect that can rally the market up as well since early last week, Market tank quite significant for profit taking. What it means is Fund Managers dump underperforming stock and start to pick some good stocks with some criteria, such as: beat expectation, good news, or other fund manager just picked these stocks.

As we may know that April is the most bullish month in a year. Also, based on the history and what happened in the market is started from November to April is Bullish Time and started from May to October is Bearish Time. That's why month of May, some analysts call it "Sell in May and Go Away." Because people rally the market up by buying more stocks in April and when May comes to the corner, people get scary in which they more cautious in term of volume. Once they see a sign of volume starts to spike up, they sell the stocks right away. No every trader would like to hold the position in May unless value investing who they hold the stock forever like Warren Buffet, Sir John Templeton.

In my opinion whether or not market will be positive or negative for this week or the week after for month of April, it all depends on Earning Season, which we just started from company called Alcoa (AA) Dow Jones listed company and unluckily this company brought the market down since it miss the earning missed the expectation and gave lower foreword guidance of earning announcement. However, we will still hear some Dow Listed companies are coming up and this earning season will be over when company called Exxon Mobile (XOM) is announced.

April 2009 in Summary

There you go,

Dow Jones was closed minus 41.74 last night, as we can see from the chart that five (5) candle reversal in weekly chart. On the other hand, april is the most bullish month in a year. Therefore, in monthly chart, it opened lower and close will be lower low or when it opened lower and close will be higher. We see how it goes from the explanation below.

In my opinion, I could be wrong though :-) (Again, market is too dynamic and no one can predict where it is going) , it opens lower and when it closes higher in monthly chart but it all depends on earning season and some news that might effect to market movement. Furthermore, earning season is started today from announcing company called Alcoa (AA) in Dow Jones listed and earning season will be ended with ticker WMT (Wall Mart) . Actually, this earning season is the first quarter (Q1) and some analyst expect financial institutions can announce higher than expected with Bank of America initialized to government that BofA gained profit in the first two month of year 2009 and it might not need US government bailout.

Also, this is what happened, NASDAQ is up 12 of 14 time before GOOD FRIDAY and it is proven that eight straight since 2001 (based on Stock Trader Almanac 2009), this occurs on Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 and the next Thursday, market might be not too crowded because Passover day.

All my friends, good luck in year of 2009 and always trade safe :-)

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